FINAL POLLING PREDICTS CONSERVATIVE WIPEOUT HOURS BEFORE POLLS OPEN

•  Final round of mega-polls suggests Labour is on course for more than 200 seats
•  YouGov poll predicts Labour would win 431 seats, with Conservatives on 102
•  More than half the Cabinet is expected to lose seats, including Jeremy Hunt

The Conservatives are set for an election wipeout that could see half the Cabinet lose their seats, polls predicted last night.

A final round of mega-polls suggested that Labour is on course to eclipse Tony Blair's 1997 landslide with a majority of more than 200 seats – the biggest for any party since 1832.

The Tories are forecast to be reduced to barely 100 seats, losing more than two-thirds of constituencies they won in 2019.

But pollsters said that, with dozens of seats on a knife-edge, they could still finish up with a more viable final total if traditional supporters hold their noses and back Rishi Sunak.

A massive YouGov poll of almost 50,000 voters predicted Labour would win 431 seats, with the Conservatives on just 102 and the Lib Dems on 72. 

Reform would pick up 15 per cent of the vote – more than the Lib Dems' 12 per cent – but would be rewarded with just three seats.

The poll is one of several published yesterday. YouGov predicted a Labour majority of 212 – bigger than the 179 achieved by Mr Blair in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. 

But it said 89 seats were 'toss-ups' and could yet go the other way, cutting Labour's majority to 132.

The pollster forecast that more than half the Cabinet will lose their seats today, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Cabinet Office minister Esther McVey. 

Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden, parachuted into the once safe seat of Basildon and Billericay, is forecast to come third behind Labour and Reform.

Labour's majority is boosted by the impact of Reform, which looks set to eat heavily into the Conservative vote. 

Nigel Farage is predicted to win in the Essex town of Clacton, finally becoming an MP at the eighth time of asking.

The Tories are forecast to secure just 22 per cent of the vote – barely half the 43.6 per cent won by Boris Johnson less than five years ago. 

Labour's estimated 39 per cent vote share is lower than the 40 per cent achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. Other polls painted a similar picture. 

A survey of 13,000 voters by the think tank More In Common forecast 430 Labour seats, the Tories on 126, Lib Dems on 52 and Reform winning two seats.

However, the model found 113 seats where the parties are less than five points apart - and suggested the Conservative total could reach 177 if former supporters spooked by the idea of a Labour supermajority turn out.

Executive director Luke Tryl said the poll suggested the Tories were heading for 'the worst result in their history', but added: 'With over a hundred seats still in the balance, the size of Labour's ­victory, the extent to which the Conservatives are able to form a viable opposition – as well as the challenge they face from the Liberal Democrats, along with how many Green and Reform UK MPs join the House of Commons – will all be determined by where those still undecided voters cast their ballot.'

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2024-07-04T00:10:51Z dg43tfdfdgfd