DON'T SURRENDER, URGES SUNAK AMID FEARS TORY VOTERS THINK IT'S OVER

Do not surrender to Labour, Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday night – not just once, but again and again and again.

The Prime Minister used the final head-to-head TV debate with Sir Keir Starmer to hammer home the 'no surrender' message.

It was not subtle. Whatever the topic, Mr Sunak had a variation on the theme: Don't surrender our borders to the Labour Party; don't surrender your family finances; don't surrender to Starmer's taxes, and so on.

The Conservatives doubled down yesterday with a hard-hitting – and controversial – poster depicting an old man, a young woman and a child with a backpack with their hands in the air, as if at gunpoint, under the message: 'Don't surrender your family's future to Labour.'

At first sight it seems a bit odd for a Prime Minister to be talking about 'surrender' one week out from a General Election he called himself. But the message is now central to the closing phase of the Tory campaign.

Tory strategists say private polling points to widespread – and growing – concern among former 2019 Conservative voters about the prospect of Sir Keir securing a 'supermajority' next week. 

But it also highlights a dangerous fatalism, with many voters believing there is nothing they can do to prevent it.

Nobody involved in the Tory campaign would argue it has gone well. But there is deep frustration at the media obsession with opinion polls, which has left many people feeling a big Labour majority – and corresponding Tory wipeout – is inevitable. 

Some are even arguing for a ban on polling in the closing weeks of the campaign as happens in countries such as Poland.

'People have got the idea that Starmer could win with a massive majority and they don't like it,' said one senior Tory strategist.

'But because of the polls and the media narrative, a lot of them just don't think they can do anything about it – they think it's a fait accompli and it will make no difference if they vote for another party or stay at home. 

But it is just not the case. There are a lot of marginal seats where a few hundred votes will make the difference.

'People do still have agency in this and they do not have to surrender it – if they are worried about what Starmer would do to their taxes or to our borders, then they can do something about it next week.'

Mr Sunak hinted at the strategy yesterday, saying 'polls aren't destiny' and pointing to research showing that 'something like 150,000 voters in key places will make the difference'. The message will now be pushed relentlessly in the run-up to polling day.

While there is little hope of victory, there is a real belief that a Labour supermajority could be averted if people can be persuaded they have the power to prevent it.

Some optimists think Sir Keir could even be denied a majority at all – a result that would surely put the pollsters out of business.

Tory morale, which has hit rock bottom at times during the past five weeks, has been given a boost by Mr Sunak's energetic performance in the final TV debate, which at times left Sir Keir looking like a punchbag as the Tory leader landed his blows.

A snap poll scored the event a draw – not a bad result for a leader whose net approval rating with the public has been subterranean recently.

But among voters who backed the Tories in 2019 – and who are now the key target audience – Mr Sunak won by a margin of 82:18. If those people take the 'no surrender' message into their own hands next week, the Tory party might yet survive to fight another day.

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2024-06-27T23:01:42Z dg43tfdfdgfd