THE RIGHT MARCOS LEGACY IN POWER, REVISITED

I FIRST published this last November when columns were under a paywall. Given it is a holiday week, let me present a revised and shortened version. As the nuclear advocates seem to be ramping up again, rather than being negative, let me point this out to contrast what we should be proud of and build on.

I am not a never-nuclear person, but I don't think nuclear power for the Philippines is timely, cost-effective or practical (modular nuclear is still, to be kind, a concept rather than ready to go). Most important to me, it is not needed given our relatively low power demand per capita given our manufacturing desert.

I often think that some of the policies and priorities of this Marcos administration are to validate and rehabilitate the first President Marcos' legacy and right what they feel has been unfair malalignment of the father's policies and therefore their legacy. Yet on nuclear power, even Vietnam, which has slightly higher gross domestic product per capita and 15 percent less population than us, has extensively studied and rejected nuclear power as an alternative.

Yet Vietnam has peak power demand of more than three times our relatively puny 16,000 megawatts (MW) and more additional generating capacity needed than us given their manufacturing prowess. The estimated additional capacity they are projected to need over the next decade exceeds our existing installed capacity.

Vietnam, after extensively weighing nuclear power as an alternative after much analysis, decided not to pursue it for the same reasons — cost (and by that, I mean total costs not just operating), timing and even though they need much more additional power generating capacity than us, the availability of alternatives.

Rather than keep pushing nuclear, which in fairness most mainstream environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis accept as part of the carbon transition program when there aren't sufficient alternatives to meet the scale of demand like in China and some countries in the West, there are renewable alternatives for countries which more modest though still considerable power generating demands like Vietnam and us, plus acceptable transition power through natural gas.

This ignores what is the real complete positive legacy in the power sector of the first Marcos administration. And it has lasted until today. It also has the bonus of being able to blame the first President Aquino for its relative neglect, given her reflex response that everything the first President Marcos did was bad and to be reversed or at best neglected.

Ironically, this accomplishment was about 30 to 40 years ahead of its time and highly recognized and acclaimed among at least the knowledgeable in the power and energy sectors. If I was the president, this is what I would stress, celebrate and make the highest priority. It is also a legitimate, forward-looking and lasting triumph he can really brag about and continue.

Under the first President Marcos, we were a world leader in renewable energy. Our major hydro plants and even more impressive, geothermal plants, were large-scale, numerous and lasting — they are still running today. The 218-MW Angat Hydro plant was inaugurated in 1967. The 360-MW Magat Hydro plant was inaugurated in 1982. Even more impressive, given the technical challenges and scale, were the geothermal plants.

In 1979, there was the original 150-MW Bacman geothermal plant. In 1975 was the amazing 588-MW Leyte Geothermal Field. From 1982 was the 115-MW Tongonan Geothermal Power Plant. From 1987 so developed under President Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s time was the 106-MW Mindanao Geothermal Field. The year 1983 was the start of the 222-MW Southern Negros Geothermal Field and the two Palimpinon fields with combined capacity of 192.5 MW. And the Tiwi Geothermal plant with 275 MW from 1979.

Now that is a huge deal and an accomplishment ahead of most other countries and that still stands today. At the time of EDSA, about 40 percent of our power came from these renewable sources. Probably only Iceland with its 300,000 population had a higher proportion than from renewable sources. Celebrate that! Build on that laudable and exemplary history that has lasted and should now lead a renaissance there.

Sadly, the first President Aquino abolished the energy department, downgrading it to the Office of Energy Affairs, then had to backtrack and reinstate it toward the end of her term given the increasing power outages. What happened, thanks to the neglect, was that many of our geothermal experts were hired by Japanese firms to develop renewable power elsewhere. Brain drains, which are only being built back again. There are plans to increase our geothermal power and other renewables. Do that and celebrate and trumpet that.

Why are some private entities signing exploratory agreements and the like on nuclear power? I leave that to them, but nothing concrete with plans to build are happening. Look at what they sign. It is not to build anything but to explore and study.

What is reality? We need cheap power available within a clear timetable for two reasons. We have additional demand, and we should retire aging baseload plants which have become costly and inefficient. I do appreciate the need for additional baseload power has become a complex and multifaceted issue. New coal is no longer acceptable from an ESG standard and that affects funding and insurance.

Natural gas is a worthwhile transition power source, but it can't be only that. Various renewables have gone down in price but there remain issues on reliability, availability and marginal cost. But nuclear power, and even worse modular new nuclear, is not cost or time efficient. Should they be dismissed? I would for now, but at least sleep on it for a decade until there is more clarity on the cost and timing issues, and for modular nuclear if it is even viable.

Yet we are the only Asian country outside of China hyping nuclear power and treating it as some promise that will soon be fulfilled. Not likely and clearly not anytime this decade at the very least. See what has already happened post those signings with some of the modular nuclear proponents and the failure of their projects in the United States.

So, Mr. President, I suggest reverting to, enhancing and celebrating the lasting power legacy of the first President Marcos. That is something to be proud of, continue to build on and renew!

2024-03-28T20:16:37Z dg43tfdfdgfd